Trump approval hits 37% before vote

President Trump’s average approval rating stands at 37%, a figure that has dropped below the 40% mark historically associated with heavy losses for the White House party in midterm elections. This decline marks a sharp reversal from early 2025, when his support averaged 52%. The shift in public sentiment is occurring just before Tuesday’s national vote, setting the stage for what analysts expect to be a punitive environment for Republicans.

The numbers suggest a consistent pattern in American politics. In nearly every midterm over the last century, the president’s party has lost ground. Current polling reinforces this trend, indicating that the Republican Party is likely to surrender its slim majority in the House. The Senate race remains too close for a definitive prediction, though Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote could allow the GOP to retain control if the chamber splits evenly.

The pressure is not limited to the states Trump lost in his previous three presidential campaigns. Recent data points to substantial Republican losses in swing states and even in deep red states. In some of these former strongholds, where Trump once won by double-digit margins, the party is now facing serious challenges. This has forced a strategic pivot from the White House team, which is focused on limiting the damage rather than expanding territory.

During the final weekend of the campaign, Trump visited Iowa and Kansas in person. These trips were designed to shore up Senate races in states that have been reliably Republican for decades. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, while Iowa was a battleground Trump carried in 2016 by winning 31 counties that had previously voted for Barack Obama. The president also conducted remote rallies in 19 other states while on the ground in the Midwest.

The personalization of the election is a key driver of the current political climate. Unlike previous presidents who campaigned for their party’s candidates, Trump has made the election a referendum on his own leadership. He has positioned himself as the central figure in a new political era, a stance that resonates with his base but complicates his standing with the general electorate. His approach has intensified the role of the presidency in shaping midterm outcomes.

Economic factors are playing a decisive role in voter dissatisfaction. Trump campaigned on the promise of lower prices and tamed inflation, but the public continues to see high costs. Gas prices have led a sustained surge in everyday expenses, and inflation remains elevated. Foreign policy promises, such as immediate peace in Ukraine and a new framework for Israel and Palestine, have yet to materialize. These unmet expectations have fueled criticism from opponents who rally under the slogan 'No Kings.'

Democratic confidence in their upcoming majority is mixed. If the party wins the House, the margin will be modest by historical standards. A narrow Senate victory would likely empower maverick lawmakers who frequently challenge party leadership. Internal divisions persist, particularly between centrist consensus builders and progressive candidates. The presence of Democratic Socialists of America aligned nominees has drawn attention from both media and Republican campaign ads, highlighting a split within the party’s base.

Ruy Teixeira, a political demographer at the American Enterprise Institute, has outlined 11 questions Democrats must answer if they regain power. His final question asks whether the party will prioritize working-class economic interests over recent focuses on race, gender, and social policy. Teixeira, who previously worked at Democratic think tanks, notes that the party has struggled to retain white, non-college educated voters. His analysis suggests that a united front may be difficult to maintain once Democrats hold a chamber of Congress and face the 2028 presidential cycle.

The integrity of the election process itself faces a test. Nonpartisan experts note that administration has improved since the Help America Vote Act of 2002, which replaced punch-card ballots with modern technology and paper trails. However, public confidence remains a target. Trump has a history of questioning electoral results, from the 2016 and 2020 cycles to recent comments labeling media and polls as fake. This skepticism sets the stage for potential tension in the days following the vote, as the system relies on voter faith in its mechanisms to function smoothly.