Exit polls project record 18 seats for Arab blocs in Israel's Knesset

Exit polls from Tuesday's parliamentary election project that Israel's Arab-led parties will secure a record 18 seats in the 120-member Knesset. The result follows a surge in voting among Palestinian citizens of Israel, with turnout reaching approximately 80 percent according to Channel 12. This figure surpasses the highest levels recorded in 1999. The Central Elections Committee reported that overall national turnout stood at 77.7 percent, also marking a peak since 1999.

The voting spike has shifted the balance of power in the Knesset. Updated exit polling indicates that the opposition bloc, led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot and his Yashar party, is tied with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud-led coalition. Both sides are projected to hold 51 seats each. With 61 seats required to form a government, neither bloc has an automatic path to power.

Mansour Abbas, leader of Ra'am, also known as the United Arab List, said he hopes the final count allows the anti-Netanyahu bloc to reach the necessary majority. His party currently holds five seats and was part of the governing coalition between 2021 and 2022. Abbas stated that both major blocs approached his party for support before and after the vote. In an interview with Channel 12, he said, 'With the numbers we have now, there is no government.'

Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli ambassador, noted that forming a coalition may prove difficult for Eisenkot's camp. Earlier exit polls had placed Eisenkot's bloc slightly ahead of Netanyahu's. However, Eisenkot's campaign promised not to form coalitions with Arab parties. Pinkas argued that this promise carries a cost because Arab parties cannot be excluded from the government formation process. He told Al Jazeera, 'There's a price to pay,' adding that 'Arabs can't be kept outside and only being considered and co-opted when you need their votes.'

Netanyahu's camp made final efforts to mobilize voters on election day. They warned supporters about rising turnout in Arab communities. Witnesses described cars driving through Jerusalem with Likud flags, playing the Islamic call to prayer over loudspeakers. The vehicles urged residents to vote because 'Arabs are voting.' Netanyahu shared images of long queues at polling stations in Arab towns on social media. He included a photo showing women wearing niqabs waiting to cast ballots. He warned, 'If we don't wake up now, we'll find ourselves with a government of Mansour Abbas and Ahmad Tibi.'

Arab politicians criticized the campaign tactics as inflammatory and racist. Nour Odeh, reporting from Ramallah in the occupied West Bank, described the election as an 'existential moment for Palestinian-Israelis.' She observed that the turnout included voters who historically boycotted elections. These individuals had previously doubted that voting would change their reality or alter systemic discrimination. Odeh noted that Palestinian citizens of Israel face discrimination in receiving state funds. The Knesset has passed more than 100 laws that discriminate against this demographic, according to her report.

Palestinian citizens of Israel make up about 21 percent of the country's population of 10 million. They have traditionally voted at lower rates than Jewish Israelis. The record participation on Tuesday suggests a shift in that long-standing pattern. The Joint List and Ra'am are the leading Arab-led parties expected to hold the new record number of seats.