Hochul Extends Lead Over Blakeman to 14 Points With Election Nears

New York Governor Kathy Hochul holds a 14-point lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman, according to a Siena Research Institute poll released Wednesday. The survey indicates the Democratic incumbent has widened her advantage in the final days before the November 3 election.

Among likely voters, Hochul leads the Nassau County executive 54% to 40%. This margin is five points larger than the 50% to 41% edge she maintained in September. Steven Greenberg, the pollster at Siena, said the race has shifted in favor of the governor. He stated that Blakeman is quickly running out of time to close a gap that is growing rather than narrowing.

Blakeman faces challenges in regions where Republicans traditionally rely on strong performance. The two candidates are virtually tied in upstate New York and downstate suburbs. Hochul leads independents by 11 points. Greenberg noted that Republicans need strong showings in these areas to offset the Democrats' two-to-one voter registration advantage and dominance in New York City.

Voters expressed uncertainty regarding the economy. Thirty-five percent of respondents said neither candidate would make life more affordable for average New Yorkers. Thirty percent chose Hochul, and 27% picked Blakeman.

Hochul's personal standing has improved as well. Fifty-one percent of likely voters view her favorably, while 45% view her unfavorably. This marks the first time a majority has rated her favorably in Siena polling during her five years as governor. Her job approval rose to 51% from 48% in September. Blakeman's ratings stand at 39% favorable and 40% unfavorable.

The survey revealed a gender gap in the race. Hochul leads Blakeman by 23 points among women and six points among men. She also holds an 81% to 16% advantage among Black voters, while White voters are closely divided.

Most voters expect Hochul to prevail. Sixty-eight percent of likely voters believe she will win, compared to 23% who predict a Blakeman victory. Among Republicans surveyed, 40% said they expect Hochul to win. In other statewide contests, Democratic Attorney General Letitia James leads Republican Saritha Komatireddy 54% to 39%. Democratic State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli leads Republican Joseph Hernandez 59% to 32%. Siena conducted the poll from October 19 to 22 among 807 likely New York voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.