Exit polls show Netanyahu bloc stuck at 51-51 tie in Knesset

Supporters of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gathered at Likud headquarters in Jerusalem on Tuesday night, chanting in support of their leader despite early exit polls indicating a potential parliamentary deadlock. The venue filled with the party's blue and white colors and posters bearing the slogan “Either the Right or Palestine.” As classic Israeli songs played in Mizrahi renditions, the mood remained confident even as the numbers suggested a tight race.

The initial projections from major broadcasters painted a divided picture of the election results. Channel 11 and Channel 13 exit polls projected that Likud would win 27 seats. These surveys suggested that Netanyahu’s bloc would tie with the opposition at 51-51 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Channel 12 offered a less favorable view for the prime minister, projecting 24 seats for Likud. In that scenario, Netanyahu’s bloc would trail the opposition 52-50. Conversely, Channel 14 provided a more optimistic outlook, predicting 30 seats for Likud and 60 for his bloc, which would leave the coalition just short of a majority.

Meir Cohen, a longtime Likud member born in 1973, expressed strong confidence in Netanyahu’s ability to form a government. Cohen said he viewed Menachem Begin, who served as his godfather, as a foundational figure in his political identity. He expressed distrust of the polls from all networks except Channel 14. When asked about the path forward, Cohen stated, “I trust Bibi.” He credited the prime minister with strengthening Israel’s military power and standing abroad, adding, “He will protect us. He will continue to protect us.”

Tomer Shlomi Mishkaf Lavan, another supporter, focused on the need for national unity. He described the past four years as a period of division, citing angry exchanges, burning tires, and blocked roads. Mishkaf Lavan said he wanted four years of quiet and an end to the protests. He stated, “We are fighting for the future of the State of Israel.” He called for a strong leader to unite the country and guide “this ship called the State of Israel to safe harbor.”

Mishkaf Lavan linked domestic solidarity with security goals, specifically mentioning the defeat of Iran and other enemies. He said, “We need mutual responsibility. We need people to love one another.” His personal motivation for attending the headquarters was to express his opinion on unity. “I came here to express my opinion. My opinion is unity,” he said.

A third supporter, who said he had worked for the Likud movement for nearly 60 years, urged patience. He questioned whether the preliminary polls fairly reflected support for Netanyahu. He noted that the vote count and subsequent negotiations would determine who could form the next government.

The projections remained preliminary as the official count continued. Inside the hall, the refrain “Only Bibi” remained familiar. The supporters’ conversations repeatedly returned to Netanyahu rather than specific coalition partners or seat counts. The evening’s atmosphere combined personal faith in the prime minister with a desire for stability.

The vote count was still ahead as night progressed. The initial exit polls had not settled the question of who would hold a majority. The leaders of the parties involved would soon begin negotiations to determine the composition of the next Knesset government.